Riverboat Gambling

Here we go into the last weekend of SEC football before the Conference Championship game in two weeks. Starting tomorrow, we have Turkey and football all day for four straight days. It's one of my favorite weekends of the year.

Here are the lines for this week:

• Ole Miss at Mississippi State (-6.5) (11:30, LFS*)
  
• Arkansas at LSU (-12.5) (1:30, CBS*)
  
• Tennessee at Kentucky (-2.5) (12:30, CBS)
  
• Wake Forest at Vanderbilt (+2) (1:00, Dudley Field)
  
• Georgia at Georgia Tech (+3.5) (2:30, ABC)
  
• Florida State at Florida (-13.5) (4:00, CBS)
  
• Clemson at South Carolina (+3) (6:00, ESPN2)
  
• Alabama at Auburn (-6) (7:00, ESPN)
  

*= Friday

The Egg Bowl- The game has been hard to watch the last decade or so. State is at home and seems to have the hot hand. I think the Rebels have something for them, but Sly pulls it out 27-21.

A joke for southerndaddy: How many Ole Miss students does it take to fix a flat tire? Two. One to hold the vodka, the other to call daddy.

Battle for the Golden Boot- According to LSU fans this trophy is a complete concoction of the Razorback hierarchy. It that means very little to the Bayou Bengals, except holding on to their #1 ranking this week. LSU is focused and ready, so I don't think the emotion of Nutt's last game will carry the Hawgs to victory. LSU bids Houston adieu, covering 41-14.

Battle for the Beer Barrel- Kentucky is favored at home over the streaky Vols?....NOT so fast my friend! Fulmer seems to get it done when he must. This year will be no different. Fat Phil and the Volunteers in a shootout, 44-38.

The Commodore Crusade- Can Bobby J get the 'Dores bowl eligible? The biggest part of me wants to say yes, but he's got nearly 50 years of history to buck, and I'm not sure they can do it. I'm gonna stay with my early season prediction though: "Vandy will go bowling."

Bobby J at home gets it done over the Demon Deacons, 21-17.

Pure Old Fashioned Hate- The Dawgs have their act together, and poor Tech doesn't have the team to stay with them. Mark Richt finds a way to go BCS bowling after the 48-14 shalacking of the Rambling Wrecks.

Seminoles vs. Gators- Urban Meyer continues the streak to four straight wins. That's the end of the story. Too much speed for the Seminoles to stand a chance over four quarters. The spread may be a little large for this rivalry's intensity. Tebow locks up the Heisman in the 28-17 win.

Battle of the Palmetto State- Carolina doesn't have the talent to win this one, even at home. Clemson has owned the rivalry as of late, and Spurrier's squad is in utter disarray. It won't be close either. Tommy Bowden for ACC Coach of the Year! Clemson rolls 51-20.

The Iron Bowl- Nick Saban has lost control of his team. The rhetoric and media attention since the loss to UL-Monroe has magnified every problem the Tide has, and Saban's ego is shining through every time he opens his mouth.

Auburn has their own questions with Tuberville's possible departure, but I think the house is in order and fully ready for Bama after the off-week. Bama keeps it close early, but Auburn pulls away for the sixth straight win in the rivalry, 31-10.

There are no more games of interest except the conference championships. Here are a few more predictions:

SEC Championship- LSU over Tennessee.

Big 12 Championship- OU over Missouri.

ACC Championship- Nobody cares.

Heisman Trophy Winner- Tim Tebow

National Championship- LSU over West Virginia in New Orleans.

General Predictions- Les Miles to Michigan. Bo Pilini to LSU. Tuberville stays at Auburn.

Happy Thanksgiving, y'all.

Riverboat Gambling

Not a lot to look forward to in college football this weekend:

• Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama (-24.5)
• Mississippi State at Arkansas (-11)
• Florida Atlantic at #12 Florida (-34.5)
• #1 LSU at Ole Miss (+19.5)
• Vanderbilt at #20 Tennessee (-11.5)
• #23 Kentucky at #9 Georgia (-7.5)
  

Open: Auburn, South Carolina

All my confidence and momentum seems to be gone after last week's thrashing at the hands of Vegas. Let's see if I can't snap out of it.

-Bama wins and doesn't cover, 41-21.

-Arkansas covers at home, 34-14.

-Florida rolls, 59-17.

-LSU's momentum helps them cover on the road, 45-3.

-Vanderbilt covers...and wins. 'Dores go bowling after a 31-27 upset in Knoxville!

-The way the Dawgs are playing recently doesn't bode well for the slumping Cats. Georgia wins and covers Between the Hedges, 38-24.

SEC Riverboat Gambling

These lines should be quick and easy to break down.

• Alabama at Mississippi State (+5) (11:30, LFS)
• Arkansas at Tennessee (PK) (11:30, LFS)
• Auburn at Georgia (-2) (2:30, CBS)
• Florida at South Carolina (+6 1/2) (6:45, ESPN)
• Kentucky at Vanderbilt (+3 1/2) (2:00)
• Louisiana Tech at LSU (+36 1/2) (7:00)

Open: Ole Miss (nobody cares)

-State only wins when their SEC opponent turns the ball over five times or more, so don't bet on a Saban-led squad to have that problem. Bama covers, 27-14.

-The Razorback running attack rolls over the Vol defense in a shootout. Hawgs 44-31.

-Auburn's got something for the Bulldogs. The strange history in the rivalry gives the edge to the road team. The Tigers run defense is stout, so don't expect Moreno to go nuts this week. Tigers in a close one, 21-17.

-Florida beats a streaky Gamecock team in Columbia, 38-21.

-Call me nuts, but I think the Commodores get bowl eligible right here in Nashville this weekend. Bobby J. and Vandy go bowling after the 28-24 win.

-LSU will win large, but won't cover the equally large line. They've got to get healthy, so the strings will be play early and often as the Bayou Bengals win 42-7.

SEC Riverboat Gambling

We're traveling to the Southland this weekend to gear up for another round of interviews at Ohio State and Vanderbilt over the next week and a half. Also, Dave and Patrick make their way to Nashville on the 9th, so it'll be a fun trip altogether.

Other than the personal mumbo jumbo, here's this week's exciting and decisive lines against Southeastern Conference Football:

• (#3) LSU at (#17) Alabama (+7) (4:00, CBS)
  
• South Carolina at Arkansas (+4 1/2) (7:00, ESPN2)
  
• Tennessee Tech at (#16) Auburn (-30) (1:30)
  
• Vanderbilt at (#20) Florida (-14 1/2) (11:30, LFS)
  
• Troy at (#10) Georgia (-16 1/2) (Noon)
  
• Northwestern State at Ole Miss (-24) (1:00)
  
• Louisiana-Lafayette at Tennessee (-28 1/2) (3:00)
  

OPEN: Kentucky & Mississippi State

-On ESPN radio yesterday, I heard someone say (for reasons passing understanding) that Alabama was looking to settle a vendetta.

See, I was under the impression that Nick Saban left LSU for more money and prestige in the pros, couldn't hack it, and came to Bama for comparable money after saying, very clearly, that he wasn't gonna be the coach for the Crimson Tide. I'm not sure what vendetta Bama has to settle, but I think LSU may have one.

I think LSU will cover....thrice. Tigers 31-10.

-The battle of the offensive juggernauts in Fayetteville will lead to.....nothing. Nothing at all, whatsoever. I don't believe either team will be in the running for their division titles, but someone will become bowl eligible. I think it might be the Gamecocks. Just too much offense, and I think they've got enough defense to stop the Arkansas running attack. SC wins 34-21.

-Tennessee Tech at Auburn is only a slight mis-match. It's homecoming, and the Tigers have a lot to work on before getting ready for Georgia next week. It'll be bad, and Auburn will cover 55-13.

-The Commodores in the Swamp and giving 14 1/2.....I don't know. Vandy always seems to have something for them, and the emotional and physical loss may be a hard blow to recover from so quickly.

Florida will win, but by the hair of their chinny, chin, chin, 38-35.

-I don't know why the line of Georgia-Troy is only 16 1/2. Bulldogs cover 45-17.

-Ole Miss couldn't cover a car if they were made out of canvass. They get a game from a division II team, but win 24-13.

-The Vols at home against a very, very bad team. I think the Volunteer offense gets it done, and is a safe cover. Tennessee rolls 52-14.

SEC Riverboat Gambling

Before we get to your weekly vice advice, I wanted to let you know that we are not sure what is going on with the baby this morning. Liz was unknowingly exposed to the Parvo Virus, which can seriously harm an unborn, causing miscarriage or severe development problems.

We are planning on a O.B. visit this morning at some point.

We just ask that you pray for Liz and the baby, and that both are unscathed.

Thank you for your continued support with thoughts and prayers

Without further delay, I give you this week's pretty worthless picks (there are a bunch of "trap lines" because of the beating Vegas has been taking in College Football this year):

• Florida International at Arkansas (-39 1/2) (1 p.m. CT)
• Ole Miss at (#22) Auburn (-17) (5 p.m. CT)
• (#11) Florida vs. (#18) Georgia (+8 1/2) (3:30 p.m. ET / CBS)
• Mississippi State at (#14) Kentucky (-13 1/2) (12:30 p.m. ET / LFS)
• (#16) South Carolina at Tennessee (-3) (7:45 p.m. ET / ESPN)
• Miami (Ohio) at Vanderbilt (-14) (1 p.m. CT)

OPEN: (#24) Alabama, (#3) LSU

-Arkansas getting 39 1/2 over Springdale High School is a little large for the margin of victory the Hogs are getting this season on out of conference opponents. Sorry, the Razorbacks don't cover in a solid victory, 38-6.

-Ole Miss always seems to give Auburn a game, even on The Plains. The Tigers return from Baton Rouge with a loss in a physical ball game. They'll be fired up enough to win though, but covering may be too much to ask. Tigers win, 24-17.

-The Cocktail Party is always fun to watch. I like the Gators to cover on a neutral field, as opposed to Athens. Gators cover, 45-17.

-I think the Bulldog defense has their worst match up of the year against this Wildcat offense. It won't be pretty in Lexington. Kentucky rolls 52-14.

-Spurrier in Knoxville is always a circus; and why is the unfacile Volunteer defense favored to do anything against the 'Cock and Fire'*? Whatever. I think the Gamecocks have a win left in the tank on the road. Cocks win, 35-27.

-Vanderbilt by two touchdowns.....NOT so fast, my friend. We've seen the 'dores beat a solid SEC opponent on the road only to return home the following week to lose to MTSU. I like Vandy to win, and get that kind of let down off their backs under Bobby J., but I don't think they'll cover. Vanderbilt....closer than the experts think, 27-20.

Just to wrap this up, prayer is not a one way street. Most of you, if not all of you who read this site would likely not be up to sharing your prayer requests via the web. I would like to know what I can be praying for you about. Call, email, or text me with anything, and I'll be praying.
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*= formerly the Fun n' Gun

SEC Weekend Wrap Up

Another good weekend picking on Vegas. 5-1 against the spread (9-3 season) and 5-1 picking the winner (37-5 season). The crazy upsets I've predicted this season now include South Florida over Auburn, Kentucky over Louisville, and Vanderbilt over South Carolina.

My only failures to pick the winner: Alabama over Tennessee, Auburn over Florida, South Carolina over Georgia, Kentucky over LSU, and Mississippi State over Auburn.

Now to the Nitty Gritty of this past weekend.

-Bama beating the crap out of Tennessee was a bit surprising to me. I thought Tennessee's offense would fair better, and J.P. Wilson would be typical.....not so fast, my friend.

J.P. Wilson actually became a man yesterday with the help of D.J. Hall, and I think the Vol Nation will start beating the Fulmer Firing Drum pretty hard with the 41-17 embarrassment.

-The Razorbacks rolled up 437 yards of total offense in Oxford in route to a 44-8 shalacking of Ole Miss. McFadden and Jones got back on track piling up 211 rushing yards against an inept defense. They should feel good about themselves. Really. ppppppppllllllllllllbbbbbbbbtttttttt.

-LSU wins 30-24, and Auburn covers the ridiculous 13-point spread in a great game down in the Bayou.

Brandon Cox really showed me something last night. I was proud of him and how he handled the fourth quarter adversity. Auburn just allowed the LSU offense to stay on the field too long in the second half, and their talent will score like that given the opportunity (23 second half points).

Just for the record, even though it paid off, the long pass with little time remaining was as dumb a play call and as dumb a throw as I've seen in a long time. One batted ball between hero and goat when you're already well within field goal range is pretty darn stupid.

Coach Miles has had his gutsy calls return major dividends so far this season, but more often than not in the SEC, those calls will end up losing games instead of winning them. The ball is bouncing their way in 2007, but I think LSU is officially too stupid to survive a national championship game.

-Florida's off-week seemed to help as they kept the Wildcats at arms length most of the day. That last Woodson TD pass made the score look more respectable than it was, although the Gators still covered.

Kentucky has turned back into a pumpkin, and Florida will have the chance to control their own destiny playing Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina to wrap up their conference schedule.

-How 'bout them Commodores!?! The way the Gamecocks struggled with the Tarheels last week was the precursor to this upset. Vanderbilt is disciplined and plays good defense. The upset trail is not over yet for the Commodores this season, but I'm not sure yet who it will be.

Week 9 Games of Interest:

Watch: South Carolina at Tennessee, Florida at Georgia, Boston College at Virginia Tech

Tevo: Cal at Arizona State, Ohio State at Penn State

Don't Buy The Hype: USC at Oregon, West Virgina at Rutgers

Riverboat Gambling

I've got a bunch of stuff that has been on my heart and mind that has literally kept me up at night lately. I'm not gonna touch on that today, but I'll be hitting some subjects pretty hard tomorrow and early next week. If you're interested, I'd love to hear your feedback when the time comes.

Until then, here's your weekly schedule for debauchery and sinning via the disease of gambling.

• (#21) Tennessee at Alabama (-1) (11:30 a.m. CT / LFS)
• Arkansas at Ole Miss (+5) (1 p.m. CT)
• (#17) Auburn at (#4) LSU (-11) (8 p.m. CT / ESPN)
• (#15) Florida at (#7) Kentucky (+7) (3:30 p.m. ET / CBS)
• Mississippi State at (#9) West Virginia (-23 1/2) (2:30 p.m. CT / ESPN-Regional-Big East)
• Vanderbilt at (#6) South Carolina (-13) (12:30 p.m. ET)

Another weird week of lines. The Vegas bookies don't seem to be paying attention.

-Why in the world is Bama favored in this game? No defense vs. No offense. It's a battle of who wants it less. Tennessee makes a statement in Tuscaloosa, 34-24 Vols.

-Ole Miss doesn't have Auburn's run defense, and Ole Miss will turn the ball over....a lot. Razorbacks to cover, 38-13.

-LSU is beat to a pulp from the last couple of weeks. They might be hacked off from the loss, but it was emotional and draining. Auburn doesn't have the offense to pull off the win in the Bayou, but they'll cover. LSU wins 21-17.

-Florida has had a bye week to stew on their second straight loss. I don't think Urban will go for three in a row, and I don't think it'll be close. Gators roll 42-20.

-West Virginia has the kind of offense that will drive the Bulldogs crazy all day. I think the Mountaineers cover, and Al Sharpton will accuse Rich Rodriguez of racist tendencies because of the blowout. WVU 66-7.

-Vanderbilt is interesting this year, and I think they match up well against the Gamecocks. It's just a silly gut feeling, but the East will get back into kilter a little bit with an upset. Commodores! My oh, my! Pull it out in Columbia, 27-24.

-Ok, I'm just going to stay in the SEC with the picks. I'm not too good out of conference.

Riverboat Gambling

Dr. Elrod does this over on the Lame-O Weblog, and I really enjoy it. He might be somewhat prohibited from making predictions himself due to contractual or "religious" constraints Harding might have (but that's just speculation).

Since Nate and I have been doing "Porch Prognostications," I think this is a good way of combining them both.

It should be noted that it is inadvisable to take any prognostications and bet money on them. Las Vegas makes nearly $3.5 billion a year in profits from sports betting. The lines are made by some serious people, but they're not always right.

Furthermore, I am not condoning gambling, as I myself have not bet money on anything since middle school (and won), but I will not ever do it again.

Here are this week's SEC Run Down of lines and TV Schedules:

• Alabama at Ole Miss (+6 1/2) (11:30 a.m. CT / LFS)
• (#22) Auburn at Arkansas (-3) (6:45 p.m. CT / ESPN)
• (#24) Georgia at Vanderbilt (+7) (5 p.m. CT / ESPN2)
• (#1) LSU at (#17) Kentucky (+10) (3:30 p.m. ET / CBS)
• (#25) Tennessee at Mississippi State (+7) (TBA)
• (#7) South Carolina at North Carolina (+7) (3:30 p.m. ET / ABC)
• OPEN: (#13) Florida

I like a beat up Florida against the open date, but the rest of the lines seem pretty shaky to me.

This has been a statistical outlier of a football season so far, and I think Vegas may have some problems here.

-I don't think Bama or the Rebels are "resurrected" just yet, and the line is the biggest trap of all. I'll take Ole Miss to cover. Bama wins, 20-14.

-Auburn is ranked again, and giving 3 to the Razorbacks? I think Arkansas gets welcomed back to Division I Football for the first time in three weeks. Auburn in an "upset" 31-17.

-I know the crowd is pretty rowdy over at Dudley Field in Nashville, but I think the Dawgs can handle it. Dawgs cover 34-7.

-LSU is the walking wounded after the Florida game. I actually like this line. Wildcats cover in the loss 30-24.

-Even with the help of former Vol QB, Casey Claussen, the Bulldogs won't win or cover at home. Tennessee....BIG. 45-14.

-Butch Davis, blah, blah, blah. How 'bout the ole ball coach!?! Gamecocks cover, 41-17.

Anyone else care to share their forecasts?